Making Money on Polymarket - This is Definitely Not for Everyone

Check out my Side Hustle & Passive Income Blueprint here --> https://mikelewis77.gumroad.com/l/xyjqkm

I hesitated about writing this because betting is something that the vast majority have zero understanding of. I mentioned this on Reddit a few weeks ago just as I started and got a ton of abuse.

Even when I explained what I was doing in detail, the abuse continued. It seems like many may have lost money betting and they don’t even want to educate themselves on what works.

This may help a few people though, so I’ve decided to publish this anyway. If betting is not for you, stop reading.

Even if it is for you, note that I’m not suggesting you do what I’m doing. Most people lose money for a variety of reasons. The two main reasons are their emotions and their lack of understanding of probabilities.

So, let me be very clear - I’m showing you what I’m doing. As with all my side hustle ideas, I’m not suggesting that you do any of them. We’re all different. What works for me may not work for you. This is especially true with betting.

Toss a Coin

So, I’ll start with a simple explanation. Suppose I toss a fair coin. Over the long run, heads will win 50% of the time and tails will win 50% of the time.

In a prediction market like Polymarket, a bet like this would be priced at 50c for heads and 50c for tails. You then make your choice and buy however many shares you want.

Suppose I buy 100 shares of “heads”. Using the 50c example above, 100 shares would cost me 50c. Once the coin is tossed, the winning side ends up at 100c and the losing side ends up at 0c.

So, if heads wins, I end up with $100. If tails win, I end up with $0.

As you should be able to tell, if I play this game hundreds of times, I’ll win 50% of the time and lose 50% of the time.

It would be pointless to play this game because I can’t come out ahead over the long term. To come out ahead, I need an edge, which there isn’t in the coin toss game.

That is how most people bet though. They think being right is the way to make money. That’s not always the case though. You can be wrong 90% of the time and still make money.

Now, consider what would happen if the heads option was underpriced at 40c.

You could just bet on heads every time. With 100 shares, you’d lose $40 50% of the time and win $100 50% of the time. You’d come out ahead in the long run.

And that, in a nutshell, is how I approach Polymarket.

But there’s a lot more to it than that. I don’t just place a bet and wait for the result. With a few exceptions, I only bet on events where the odds move more slowly and where I can close the bet early.

The election for US President is a good example of this. When Biden was still in the race, you could bet on Harris for around 5c. With all the talk of Biden withdrawing, the odds on Harris started rising. The odds are now 50c. If you’d bought at 5c and sold at 50c, you’d have made 10X your money. You’d have made 10X even if Trump ends up winning. So, you don’t need to bet on the winner to win.

The above is something that 99% just don’t understand. They think that if you bet on Harris to win the election you’ll lose if Trump wins. That is true if you hold the bet until the election is done but it doesn’t have to be.

Another thing to note is that all bets on Polymarket are binary. Every winning bet ends up at 100c and every losing bet ends up at 0c. There are some rare cases that end up at 50c-50c though.

Even if there are three or more candidates, the bets are still binary. You are betting that either Trump will win or lose, that Harris will win or lose, that Kennedy will win or lose, etc.

This is totally different from traditional betting.

How does Polymarket work?

To fund your account, you need to deposit USDT via the Polygon chain, hence the name Polymarket. You can also buy directly using your credit card.

Polymarket is illegal in many countries but people tend to use a VPN to get around this. There is no KYC and you don’t need to give any personal details. Check your local laws. I don’t suggest you break them.

How much have I made so far?

I decided to start with $520 and make small bets. I want my mistakes to be small, not big. There’s a bit of a learning curve and it can be easy to make a costly mistake.

You can bet at market rates or use limit orders. I always use limit orders. If you use market orders, you can end up paying more than you intended to if liquidity is low, which is the case in many markets.

Using limit orders is also a great way to get a good price. If the market price is 60c, you can sometimes place a bet at 40c if you place a limit order. This is especially true in markets with low liquidity and also when a market is first listed. Limit orders like this will usually not be met though. You also need patience.

I recently placed limited orders on the upcoming election in Austria. I bet on the top two parties and got great odds.

I started on 28 July with $519.56

Today is 27 September and my account was up to $701.53, a profit of $181.97 or 35%.

I can hear the haters now. They will be saying I only made $180 and it’s a waste of time. I get this with every side hustle I start. When I made my first $30 on eBay, the haters said the same thing. I went on to earn $500,000 over the next three years.

Even billion-dollar companies start with one sale.

And as I mentioned already, I deliberately started small while I tested this out. It may end up not working.

If I started with $520 and made $180 in two months, I can easily increase that to $5,200 and make $1,800. Or increase to $52,000 and make $18,000. It’s not quite that easy in practice because many markets don’t have enough liquidity.

I’m very happy with a 35% return in two months. I don’t know anywhere else that I can generate such a good return.

It doesn’t mean that this will continue but I don’t bet in a way that I can drop down large amounts.

From what I’ve seen so far, I’m pretty confident I can make good money doing this. I will remain cautious though and won’t ramp up my bets just yet.

To give you an idea of how much the top players make, here’s the Leaderboard for September so far.

As you can see, the top player is showing a profit of $230,000 this month.

The player in 20th place has made $73,000.

I’ve made $119.78.

I doubt very much I will ever get to the top 20, but I’ll be very happy if I make a few thousand a month.

So, let me repeat again that this is my experience. I’m not suggesting you should do it. In fact, most people should stay well away.

To give some more info, I have a degree in Statistics and have a pretty good understanding of probabilities. I don’t bet because I “think” a certain outcome will happen. I bet because the probability is in my favor.

I also don’t bet based on emotions or who I want to win. I will bet on Trump or Harris, even if I want the opposite one to win. I’m doing this to make money not to make my ego feel better.

I don’t aim to be “right”. I aim to make money.

At the moment, I have a bet on Harris to win the US election. Trump supporters ask why I support Harris. I don’t. I’m not American. I don’t care who wins. I bet because I think her odds are likely to rise. If I’m wrong and it starts to look like Trump is going to win, I’ll close the bet. I’ll lose a small amount. It doesn’t matter. Many people just cannot get their heads around this way of thinking. Most think you should bet on the candidate that you support. That’s nonsense to me. You can support your candidate but why would you bet on them if you think they’re going to lose?

I’ll keep you updated on how it goes.

One funny anecdote that a few may understand: I checked my crypto portfolio a few days ago and saw that I was up over $3K on the previous day. But I was more excited that I made $170 on Polymarket in a couple of months. Why? Because it’s proof that my concept works, and that means I should be able to make much, much more over the coming years.

I don’t care about the $180. I don’t need the money. I care about making $50K, $100K, etc. sometime in the future.

Laugh if you want.

Check out my Side Hustle & Passive Income Blueprint here --> https://mikelewis77.gumroad.com/l/xyjqkm